Zweig Model – Status Update & Roadmap

by Kevin on September 16, 2009

Although it may be hard to tell, we’re making some significant progress with the indicators. We’re just about done with making the Prime Rate Indicator configurable (you will get to change the high/low threshold, as well as the Index). Fortunately, it’s starting to look better (from a results/performance perspective – not necessarily a user interface perspective :).

We’ve also finished the Fed Indicator, and are just validating the data before we publish it. Zweig was not very clear in distinguishing between the Discount Rate and the Reserve Requirements – and the results in the book are not presented in a date-table – they’re just grouped by indicator rating (Extremely Bullish, Bullish, etc)… so it takes a little extra time to validate.

Once those two are done, we’ll knock out the Installment Debt Indicator – completing the Monetary Model. If memory serves, we’ll just need to implement the 4% indicator (by far the easiest of the lot) to complete the Zweig Super Model.

We’re tracking to have the Super Model completed by the middle of October – and after that, we’ll just focus on usability and indicator optimization.

If you have any input or thoughts on how Zweig is calculating the Fed Indicator (where is he getting the Reserve Requirements? – it doesn’t even look like it’s being used in the book) – please respond here or send us an email at admin [at] zweigmodel.com.

Thanks!

Team Zweig

{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }

Jim Heaton September 22, 2010 at 11:53 AM

I hear you about some of Zweig’s calculations. I’ve been using a spreadsheet. I immediately ran into the problem of Valueline not publishing it’s up/down issues and up/down volume. I substituted s&p 500 and nyse and used the wsj’s published material. I hate logging in that data daily. I’ve been looking for a source where i can download the up/down issues and volumes and watch them. I caught a good portion of the major stock runup using just the up/down issues and volume. But the 4% rule was a little goofy. I was in Vanguard Mutual funds and when I would move from their 500 index back to their money market, i had to wait three months to get back in. That made me conservative in my moves.
Anyway, i think that with so much government intervention now, Zweig’s model might be somewhat compromised since market forces are not the only reason for movement. What are your thoughts? I’m moving toward O’Neil and more individual stocks rather than broad market moves until I’m more confident. By the way does anyone know of a downloadable source of up and down issues and volume for the broad market (s&p 500 etc.) where i can download historical data? I hate the hand written stuff. (by the way, I’m buzzy).

Jim Heaton September 22, 2010 at 11:59 AM

P.S. Also keep in mind that if the feds raise reserve requirements now, it won’t make any difference because much of the money that banks have gotten from the fed has been parked in reserves rather than loaned out. (although that doesn’t matter to constructing the model).

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