Zweig Model Blog

Hello…

Yahoo! Finance only has data on the Value Line Geometric Average going back to January 11, 1985 – but according to this site, the index dates to June 30, 1961. Winning on Wall Street covers May of 1966 through February of 1993.

Anyone know how I can get my hands on data prior to 1985? Pretty please….

Regards,

Kevin

This is gonna be quick – I’m getting ready to head out to a concert. I just added a new feature on the site… the ability to sign-in with Facebook.

Here’s the deal – *no one* wants to have to create another new username/password for every random site they stumble across on the interwebs. So Facebook (and lots of other large web properties) offer themselves as a trusted source of authentication. That means you can use your Facebook credentials to sign into Zweigmodel.com.

A couple of quick notes:

You are signing into Facebook — YOU ARE NOT providing your FB credentials to me. Check out the URL, it’s the FB url. Once FB verifies who you are, they redirect you to my site, and there is a brief handshake between me and FB… something that goes like – “yep, this is a valid Facebook user and here are a few pieces of info about him/her”. It then passes me your first name, last name, email address and a few other pieces of data. I’m not storing them yet… I soon will for tracking/metrics/etc. Don’t worry – 1500 people and not one spam.

I will be adding a few other providers soon… namely, Google, MSN, Yahoo! and OpenID. Between those four (plus Facebook) – I think I’ll have the whole planet covered.

And, for you – there’ll be one less username/password to remember.

QUESTION: Will anyone be impacted by this? Is there anyone who *doesn’t* have credentials with one of those five services? Man, I’ve got all five… and I don’t think I’m alone in that regard.

I’d love to hear your thoughts.

Regards,

Kevin

Well, I know I said last September about adding something to visually display data. What can I say, I’m lazy.

Now, I FINALLY added a very basic  Prime Rate Indicator chart. I was originally doing some pretty cool stuff with Flash, but with all of the static between Apple and Adobe (and the fact that it won’t render on my phone) – I decided to try something using plain old javascript. I found a pretty cool jQuery plugin called Flot (rhymes with plot) and even though I’m not a jQuery/javascript guru, I was able to hack something together.

The vertical gray bands represent the time that the model is on a buy signal (based on the indicator customizations available at the top of the form. The two lines show the value of two hypothetical $10,000 investments – with one following a buy-and-hold strategy, and the other being invested only when the Model is on a buy signal (which is why it’s flat during the sell periods).

There is a table above the graph that shows the numeric value of each investment, along with the date. It also shows the difference between the two values… the scaling on the graph doesn’t really make the differences as obvious (or glaring) as I’d like – so I added that to help quantify the situation.

Finally, you’re able to zoom in and out of the data. You do this by dragging the cursor over a range of data in the graph, while holding down the left-mouse button. This is pretty cool as it enables you to look more closely into the data… for instance you’ll see that the indicator pretty much failed in February of 1998 and is now significantly behind the buy-and-hold strategy. When you zoom-in, the information table able will tell you the date range that you are zoomed in on. You can continue to zoom-in more finely, and if you want to zoom back out, just click the (you guessed it) ‘zoom out’ button.

I need to work on dynamically scaling the y-axis so that when you’re looking at past periods, the differences between the two graphs are more pronounced. That’ll be my next update once I get a response from the developer on how to do it :).

[Update: I ‘fixed’ this… now instead of just selecting x-axis data, you can draw a box around the section you are interested in, and it’ll zoom in scaling both axes appropriately. Not sure if I like it – may need to add a panning option.]

One big thing: because this is javascript, all of the rendering is done in the browser. In testing this on Internet Explorer, Chrome, and Firefox, I noticed that Chrome has a massive edge on performance. The table-updating and zooming are in real-time, with NO lag. IE sucked the worst – with delays in responsiveness that were downright maddening. I kept jiggling the mouse thinking something had locked up. It makes me sad because I am a huge Microsoft fan (zm.com is all written using Microsoft tools)… but IE is just a dog here. Do yourself a favor and get Chrome. Firefox was somewhere in the middle… nowhere near as bad as IE, but not as responsive as Chrome.

[UPDATE 3/25/2011: OK, I just installed Internet Explorer 9 – and holy moly, it’s MUCH improved – may even be better than Chrome from a performance standpoint. Nice job, Microsoft!]

Ok, now it’s your turn. What did I not get right here? How can I make it better? What should I do next?

The Prime Rate indicator is now configurable. You can change the threshold ‘high/low’ rate (it’s 8% in the book) and you can choose between either the Value Line Composite Index (Geometric), the S&P 500, or the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Interestingly, setting the threshold to 14% shows significantly improved performance over 8%. Hmmm… need to look into that!

We only have data going back to the mid-eighties on Value Line (ZUPI approximation) – so we need to work on getting more data – does anyone know where we can get it?

The final thing we need to do is provide summary information like that listed in book – where we show what $10k would grow to, % of signals that were successful, number of months invested and annualized return.

In the meantime, we’re just about to wrap-up testing on the Fed Indicator – so that will be coming very soon.

We hope that you enjoy the interactive site – please let us know if there is anything specific you would like to see next!

Regards,

Team ZweigModel
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Although it may be hard to tell, we’re making some significant progress with the indicators. We’re just about done with making the Prime Rate Indicator configurable (you will get to change the high/low threshold, as well as the Index). Fortunately, it’s starting to look better (from a results/performance perspective – not necessarily a user interface perspective :).

We’ve also finished the Fed Indicator, and are just validating the data before we publish it. Zweig was not very clear in distinguishing between the Discount Rate and the Reserve Requirements – and the results in the book are not presented in a date-table – they’re just grouped by indicator rating (Extremely Bullish, Bullish, etc)… so it takes a little extra time to validate.

Once those two are done, we’ll knock out the Installment Debt Indicator – completing the Monetary Model. If memory serves, we’ll just need to implement the 4% indicator (by far the easiest of the lot) to complete the Zweig Super Model.

We’re tracking to have the Super Model completed by the middle of October – and after that, we’ll just focus on usability and indicator optimization.

If you have any input or thoughts on how Zweig is calculating the Fed Indicator (where is he getting the Reserve Requirements? – it doesn’t even look like it’s being used in the book) – please respond here or send us an email at admin [at] zweigmodel.com.

Thanks!

Team Zweig

Well, it’s been the better part of a year since our last post – but we’ve finally published the Prime Rate Indicator.

The initial results are not good… and it looks like the indicator began falling apart shortly after the book was published.

We’ll be working on making this configurable over the next few days. Right now, it just executes the same logic as presented in the book using 8% as the ‘high-low’ threshold and comparing the indicator against the S&P500.

If you’re comparing the results to the book, you’ll see that it has not performed nearly as well as it did through 2/22/1993 when $10,000 became $291,047. In fact, it has actually performed contrary to its intent – with substantial losses during ‘Buy’ periods and significant lost gains during ‘Sell’ periods.

The formatting is ugly and needs a good deal of work. If you have time, let us know what you’d like to see. Once this is cleaned up. we’ll be implementing the Fed Indicator, followed by the Zweig SuperModel.

I’ve just launched a new site, ZweigModel.com, which will provide an updated examination of Martin Zweig’s Winning on Wall Street.

I am planning on blogging throughout the build process, as it might prove interesting as well as provide an opportunity for community participation and direction.

I will start with the Prime Rate Indicator (PRI), and am going to allow the user to try different versions of the rate that is considered the dividing line between high and low – which is set to 8% in the book.

Finally, I will allow the user to compare the performance of the PRI against any security or index that has publicly available data.
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